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02-02-1999 - Southern California Association of Governments 1998 Regional Transportation Plan Forecasts
• . • Ci=y of ''Nest Covina Memorandum AGENDA TO: City Council City Manager FROM: Public Services Department Planning Division ITEM NO. B-84 DATE February 1, 1111 ® PRINTED ON RECYCLED PAPER SUBJECT: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS 1998 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN FORECASTS SUMMARY: The Southern California Association'of Governments (SCAG) is presently refining the 1998 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) forecast series for population, household and employment through the year 2020. The estimates will be used to calibrate the transportation and emissions model to be presented ' to the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) in April 1999. SCAG has requested that the City Council approve the forecast numbers with any recommended revisions by February 15, 1999. BACKGROUND The SouthernCalifornia Association of Governments (SCAG), with the help of the Forecasting Technical Task Force (FTTF), is in the process of refining the 1998 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP)- forecast series for population, household, and employment categories through the year 2020. Prior to 1998, the San Gabriel Cities Subregion prepared RTP estimates on behalf of the San Gabriel Valley Council of .Governments (SGVCOG) cities, thereby relieving individual cities of this. responsibility. Since the San Gabriel Cities Subregion is no longer performing this function, SCAG has requested the assistance of each city in the preparation of their respective RTP estimates. SCAG has requested the City to respond concerning the estimates by February 15, 1999. The data established. for the ,RTP will be used for two other primary purposes. First, the figures established will be applied to the SCAG Regional Housing Needs Assessment WINA) and will thus. directly relate to the City's general plan. The RHNA establishes the City's share of housing types by category needed within the region (i.e. Very Low, Low, Moderate and High Income) that must be identified in the housing element., Secondly, the RTP estimates will be used to calibrate the transportation and emissions model to be presented to the South Coast Air Quality Management District- (SCAQMD) in April 1999. The approval timeline for the RTP was also established to coincide with the milestones for both SCAG and SCAQMD: DISCUSSION SCAG has supplied estimates for the base year of 1997 and for forecasts to the year 2020 in five-year increments. Data related to housing and population was interpolated by SCAG for the base year of 1997 from the State of California, Department of Finance. Staff reviewed the estimates and then made adjustments to reflect changes represented by both pending and approved development projects within the City. Page 1 of Exhibit A summarizes the information provided by SCAG for total population, households, and employment for the years 1997, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Shown in the column to the right of the SCAG information are adjusted numbers as developed by staff. The next column to the right reflects. the difference between the SCAG numbers and the staff numbers. In general, the estimates provided by SCAG reflect relatively modest gains in population, housing, and employment for West Covina in each of the forecast increment periods. Overall, population is forecast to increase from 104,009 persons in 1997 to 112,582 persons in 2020, an increase of 8,573 persons, or an average of 373 persons per year. Households . \WPITER\PLANDATA\CMfiptsbl\aa SCAG\RTP-,1998\Sfrpt0l:doc . Staff Report •. • SCAG-4998 RTP February 2, 1999 Page 2 of 2 are forecast to increase from 30,741 households to 33,831 households in 2020, an increase of 3,090 households, or an average of 134 households per year. Employment is forecast to increase' from 29,659 employees to 37,663 employees in 2020, an increase of 8,004 employees, or an average of 348 employees per year. In reviewing these forecasts, staff did ascertain some underestimating of additional households and employment during the 1997 to 2005 period in which staff is aware of new development projects proposed, approved, or. constructed. Specifically, there are six new housing developments that staff anticipates being developed by 2000 that will result in 663 additional households beyond the number forecast by SCAG. Because of this, staff has proposed an additional increase of 663 households for 2000, which then carries' through to each of next four forecast periods. This additional increase in households is projected to result in an additional population increase of 1,185 persons. In addition, staff is projecting an additional increase in employment beyond that forecast, primarily due to the proposed development of a 100-acre business park on. the BKK property. An additional increase of, 34 employees is therefore forecast for 2000, and another additional increase of 1,095 employees forecast for 2005, for an overall additional increase of 1,129 employees. RECOMMENDATION - Staff recommends that the City Council approve the draft 199.8 RTP population, household and, employment estimates attached as Exhibit A (as modified by staff) and instruct staff to communicate its approval to SCAG by February 15, 1999. h Brian H. Lee Planning Associate REVIEWED AND APPROVED: J ey. W. Collier, is Services Director \WPITER\PLANDATA\CC\Sfrptsbl\aa SCAG\RTP = 1998\Sfpf OLdoc Exhibit A Summary of Estimates Population Households Employment Year SCAG W.Covina - Difference SCAG W.Covina Difference SCAG W.Covina Difference 1997 104,009 1041009 - 30,741 30,741 - 29,659, 29,659 2000 105,230 106,415 11185 30,851: _ 31,514 663 30,639 30,673 34 2005 106,932 108,117 1,185 31,291 31,954 663 32,429 33,558 1,129 2010 108,433 109,618 1,185 32,005 32,668 663 34,640 35,769 1,129 2015 1101224 111,409 1,185 32,722 33,385 663 36,263 37,392 11129 20201 Al2,582 1 113,767 1 1,185 1 33,831 1 34,494 1 663 37,663 1 38,792 1 . 1,129 1 Exhibit A West Covina Year 1997 Estimate Census Population Households Employment Jobs to Persons to Jobs to. Tract Inc/DecTotal Inc/Dec Total Inc/Dec Total Household Household Persons 403500 0 339 0 - 140 0 225 . 1.61 2.42 0.66 403600 0 1,108 0 348 0 1,325 3.81 3.18 1.20 404800 0 78 0 18 0 0 0.00 4.33 0.00 405300 0 8,220 0 2,532 0 2,461 0.97 3.25 0.30 405400 0 165 0 43 0 38 0.88 3.84 0.23 405500 0 .5, 944 0 1,800 0 1,590 0.88 3.30 0.27 405600 0 5,139 0 1,622 0 ` 1, 557 0.96 3.17 0.30 406200 .. 0 3,119 0 997 0 2;346 2.35 3.13 0.75 406300 0 4,931 0 1,534 0 1,603 1.04 3.21 0.33 406402 0 2,163 0 695 0 151 0.22 3.11 0.07 406411 0 2,171 0 566 0 566 1.00 3.84 0.26 406412 . 0 2,391 . 0 757 0 158. 0.21 3.16 0.07 406500 0 6,316 0 2,032 0 1,210 0.60 3.11 0.19 .406601 0 4,462 0 1,419 0 550 0.39 3.14 0.12 406602 0 3,753 0 1,041 0 559 0.54 3.61 0.15 406700 0 9,027 0 2,614 0 11,216 4.29 3.45 1.24 406800 0 4,148 0 1,.198 0-. 1, 086 - 0.91 3.46 0.26 406900 0 1,913 0 577 0 77 0.13 3.32 0.04 407400 0 1,584. 0 391 0 273 0.70 4.05 0.17 407900 0 2,295 0 564 0 114 0.20 4.07 ' 0.05 408001 0 7,297 0 2,147 0 1,060 0.49 3.40 0.15 408002 -0 5,400 0 1,663- 0 304 0.18 . 3.25 0.06 408101 0 6,979 ' 0 2,086 0 445 0.21 3.35 0.06 408102 0 621 0 166 0 103 0.62 3.74 _ 0.17 408131 0 14,443 0 3,790 0 641 0.17 3.81 0.04 999999 0 - 3 0 1 0 1 1.00 3.00 0.33 TOTAL 0 104,0091 01 30,741 01 29,659 0.96 3.38 0.29 2 Exhibit A West Covina Year 2000 Estimate Census Population Households Employment Jobs to Persons to Jobs to Tract Inc/Dec Total Inc/Dec Total Inc/Dec Total Household 'Household Persons 403500 5 344 1 141 43 268 1.90 2.44 0.78 403600 156 1,264 130 478 11 1,336- 2.79 2.64 1.06 404800 0 78 0 18 25 25 1.3.9. 4.33 0.32 405300„ 44 8,264 8 20540 18 2,479 0.98 3.25 0.30 405400 4 169 1 44 35 73 1.66 3.84 0.43 405500 223 6,167 124 1,924 39 1,629 0.85 3.21 0.26 405600 268 5,407 122 1,744 18 1,575 0.90 3.10 0.29 406200 301 3,420 188 1,185 100 2,446 2.06 2.89 0.72 406300 151 5,082 9 1,543 59 1,662 1.08 3.29 0.33 406402 12 2,175 1 696 34 185 0.27 3.13 0.09 406411 9 2,180 1 567 42 608 1.07 3.84 0.28 406412 .12 2,403 1 758 33 191 0.25 3.17 0.08 406500 39 6,355 6 2,038 ___ 27 1,237 0.61 3.12 0.19 400601 24 ". 4,486 3 ' 1,422 39 589 0.41 3.15 0.13 406602 1"8 3,771 2 1,043 36 595 0.57 3.62 0.16 406700 62 9,089 .8 2,622 25 11,241 4.29 3.47 1.24 406800 29 4,177 3 1,201 35 1,121 0.93 3.48 0.27 406900 10 1,923 2 579 45 122 0.21 ' 3.32 0.06 407400 11 1,595 1 392 67 340 0.87 4.07 0.21 407900 9 2,304 2 566' 34 148 0.26 4.07 0.06 408,001 550 7,847 19 2,166 65 1,125 0.52 3.62 0.14 408002 36 5,436 7 1,670 59 363 0.22 3.26 0.07 408101 357 7,336 119 2,205 3.1 476 0.22 3.33 0.06 408102 3 624 1 167 55 158 0.95 3.74 0.25 408131 73 14,516 14 3, 804 39 680 0.18 3.82 0.05 999999 0 3. 0 1 0 1 1.00 3.00 0.33 TOTAL 2,406 106,415 773 .31,514 11014 _ 30,673 0.97 3.38 0.29 3 Exhibit A West Covina Year 2005 Estimate Census Population Households Employment Jobs to Persons. to Jobs to .' Tract. Inc/Dec Total Inc/Dec Total Inc/Dec Total Household Household Persons 403500 8 352 3 144 84 352 2.44 2.44 1.00 403600 10 1,274 5 483 26 1,362 2.82 2.64 1.07 404800 1 79 1 19 37 62 3.26 4.16 0.78 405300 61 8,325 31 2,571 47 2,526 0.98 3.24 0.30 405400 5 174 1 45 70 143 3:18 . 3:87 0.82 405500 ' 42 6,209 19 1,943 80 1,709 0.88 3.20 0.28 405600 39 5,446 ` 17 1,761 41 1,616 0.92 3.09 0.30 406200 24 3,444 12 1,197 119 2,565 2.14 2.88 0.74 406300' 209 5,291 "39 1,582 103 1,765 1.12 3.34 0.33 406402 17 2,192 8 704 57 242 0.34 3.11 0.11 406411 12 2,192 7 574 51 659 1.15 3:82 0.30 406412 18 2,421 8 766 66 257 0.34 3.16 0.11 406500 54 6,409 23 2,061 54 1,291 0.63 3.11 0.20 406601. 34 4,520 15 1,437 75 664 0.46 3.15 0.15 406602 26' 3,797 10 1,053 64 659 0.63 3.61 0.17 406700 85. 9,174 30 2,652 158 11,399 4.30 3.46 1.24 406800 ' 41 4,218 14 1,215 74 1,195 0.98 3.47 0.28 406900 14 1,937 7 586 73 195 0.33 3.31 0.10 407400 15 1,610 5 397 77 417 1.05 4.06 0.26 - 407900 13 2,317 7 573 60 208 0.36 4.04 0.09 408001. 766 8,61.3 77 2,243 ' 1200 2,325 1.04 3.84 0'.27 408002. 50 5,486 -.23 1,693 92 455 0.27 124 0.08 408101 51 7;387 29 2,234 47 523 6.23 3.31 .0.07 408102 4 628 2 169 67 225 1.33 3.72 0.36 408131 -103 14,619 '47 3,851 63 743 0.10 3.80 0.05 999999 0 3 0 1 0 1 _ 1.00 3.00 0.33 TOTAL 1,702 108,117 440 31, 954 2, 885 33,5581 J.051 3.381 0.31 Exhibit A West Covina Year 2010 Estimate Census Population Households Employment Jobs to Persons to Jobs.to Tract Inc/Dec Total Inc/Dec Total Inc/Dec Total Household Household Persons 403500 7 359 5 149 108 460 3.09 2.41 1.28 '403600 9 1,283 8 491 35 1,397 2.85 2.61 1.09 4048.00 0 79 2 21 42 104 4.95 3.76 1.32 405300 54 8,379 49 2,620 68 2,594 _ 0.99 3.20 0.31 405400 5 179 2 47 91 234 4.98 3.81 1.31 405500 37 6,246 32 1,975 105 1,814 0.92 3.16 0.29 405600 34 51480 29 1,790 55 1,671 0.93 3.06 0.30 406200 22 , . 3,466 19 11216 v 145 2,710 2.23 2.85 0.78 406300 185 5,476 65 1,647 124 1,889 1.15 3.32 0.34 406402 14 2,206 13 717 66 308 0.43 3.08 0.14 406411 11 2,203 10 584 47 706 1.21 3.77 0.32 406412 16 2,437 14 ' 780 83 340 0.44 3.12 0.14 406500 48 6,457. 37 - 2,098 71 1,362 0.65 3.08 0.21 406601 30 4,550 26 1,463 97 761 0.52 3.11 0.17 406602 22 3,819 19 1,072 77 736 0.69 3.56 0.19 406700 75 9,249 49 2,701 262 11,661 4.32 3.42 1.26 406800 _ 36 4,254 23 1,238 96 1,291 1.04 3.44 0.30 406900 12 1,949 11 597 85 280 0.47 3.26 0.14 407400. 14. 1,624 10 _ 407 69 486 1.19 3.99 0.30 407900 11 2,328 11 584 73 281' 0.48 3.99 0.12 408001 676 9,289 122 2,365 120 2,445 1.03 3.93 0.26 .408002 44 5,530 35 1,728 .103 558 0.32 3.20 0.10 408101 46 7,433 45 2,279 52 575 0.25 3.26 0.08 408102 3 631 5 174 64 289 1.66 3.63 0.46 408131 90 14,709 73 3,924 73 816 0.21 3.75 0.06 999999 0 3 0 1 0 1 1.00 3.00 0.33 TOTAL 1,5011 109,6181 7141 32,668 2,2111 35,7691 1.091 3.36 0.33 5 Exhibit A West Covina Year 2015 Estimate Census' Population Households Employment Jobs to Persons to Jobs to . Tract ; Inc/Dec Total_:. .Inc/Dec Total Inc/Dec :Total Household Household Persons :. 403500 8 367 6 155 81 541 3.49, 2:37 1.47 403600 10 1,293 8 499 27 1,424 2.85 2.59 1.10 404800. - 1 80 1 22 29 133. 6.05 3.64 1.66 405300 63 8,442 50 2,670 53 2,647 0.99 3:16 0.31 405400 6 185 2 49 69 303 6.18 3.78 1.64 405500 45 6,291 32 2,007 79 1,893 0.94 _3.13 0.30 405600 40 5,520 29 1,819 43 1,714 0.94 3.03 0.31 406200 26 3,492 19 1,235 105 2,815 .2.28 2.8.3 0.81 406300 220 5,696., 64 1,711 90 11979 1.16 3.33 0.35 406402 18 2,224 13 730 47 355 0.40 3.05 0.16 406411 14 2,217. 11 595 28 734 .1.23.. 3.73 0.33 406412 19 2,456 14 794 63 403 0.51 3.09 0.16 406500 57 6,514 37 2,135 53 1,415 0.66 3.05 0.22 406601 35 4,585 - 26 1,489 72 833 0.56 3.08 0.18 406602 27 3,846 19 1,091 .56 792. 0.73 3.53 0.21 406700 90 9,339 49 2,750 221 11,882 4.32 3.40 1.27 406800 43 4,297 23 1,261 .74 1,365" 1.08 3.41 0.32 406900 .14 1,963 11 608 60 340 0.56 3.23 0.17 407400 16 1,640 9 416 38 524 1.26 3.94 0.32 407900 13 2,341 11 595 52. 333 0.56 3.93 0.14 408001 806. 10,095 123 2,488 86 2,531 1.02 4.06 0.25 408002 54 5,584 35, 1,763 71 629 0.36 = 3A7 0.11 _ 408101 54 7,487 46 2,325 36 611 6.26 3.22 0.08 4.08102 4 635 4 178 39 328 1.84 3.57 0.52 408131 -108 14,817 75 3,999 51 867 0.22 3:71 0.06 999999 0` 3 0 1. 0 1 1.00 3.00. 0.33 TOTAL 1,791 111,409 717! 33,3851 1,6231 37,3921 1.121 3.34 0.34 Exhibit A West Covina Year 2020 Estimate Census Population Households Employment Jobs to Persons to Jobs to Tract Inc/Dec Total Inc/Dec Total Inc/Dec Total Household Household Persons 403500 11 378 7 162 - 70 611 3.77 2.33 1.62 403600 14 1,307 12 .511 23 1,447 2.83 2.56 1.11 404800 1 81 2 24 24 157 6.54 3.38 1.94 405300 85 8,527 76 2,746 46 2,693 0.98 3.11 0.32 405400 7 192 3 52 60 363 6.98 3.69 1.89 405500 58 6,349 51 2,058 69 1,962 0.95 3.09 0.31 405600 54 5,574 46 1,865 37 1,751 0.94 2.99 0.31 406200 34 3,526 29 1,264 91 2,906 2.30 2.79 0.82 406300 - 290 .5,986 102 1,813 77 2,056 1.13 3.30 0.34 406402 23 ' 2,247 20 750 4.1 396 0.53 3.00 0.18 406411 17 2,234 17 612 23 757 1.24 3.65 0.34 406412 25 2,481 22 816 54 457 0.56 3.04 0.18 406500 75 6,589 57 2,192 46 1,461 0.67 3.01 0.22 406601 46 4,631 41 1,530 62 895 0.58 3.03 0.19 406602 35 .3, 881 30 1,121 49 841 0.75 3.46 0.22 4.06700 118 9,457 75 2,825 198 12,080 4.28 3.35 1.28 406800 57 4,354 37 1,298 63 1,428 1.10 3.35 0.33 406900 19 1,982 18 626 52 392 0.63 .3.17 0.20 407400 21 1,661 15 431 31 555 1.29 3.85 0.33 407900 18 2,359 18 613 45 378 0.62 3.85 0.16 408001 1,063 11,158 190 2,678 72 2,603 _ 0.97 4.17 0.23 408002 69 5,653 53 1,816 60 689 0.38 3.11 0.12 408101. 71 7,558 70 2,395 31 642 0.27 3.16 0.08 408102 5 640 6 184 32 360 1.96 3.48 0.56 408131 142 14,959 112 4,111 44 911 0.22 3.64 0.06 999999 0 3 0 1 0 1 1.00 3.00 0.33 TOTAL 2,358 113,767 1,1091 34,4941 1,400 38,7921 1.121 3.30 0.34